تأثیر شاخص‌های حکمرانی خوب بر وقوع درگیری مسلحانه داخلی: مطالعه کشورهای صادرکننده نفت

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 دکتری تخصصی اقتصاد بخش عمومی

2 استادیار، گروه اقتصاد، دانشگاه پیام نور، تهران، ایران

چکیده

در این مقاله تلاش شده است تا اثر کیفیت نهادی بر وقوع درگیری مسلحانه داخلی در کشورهای برخوردار از درآمدهای نفتی مورد بررسی تجربی قرار گیرد. به این منظور اثر حکمرانی خوب و مؤلفه‌های اصلی تشکیل‌دهنده آن (به‌عنوان شاخص‌های اندازه‌گیری کیفیت نهادی) در کنار فراوانی منابع نفتی بر وقوع درگیری مسلحانه داخلی 68 کشور صادرکننده نفت طی دوره زمانی 2019-1995 مورد بررسی تجربی قرار گرفته است. روش تحقیق توصیفی تحلیلی است که در قسمت توصیف از روش اسنادی استفاده شده و بخش تحلیل متکی بر مفاهیم اقتصادسنجی است. نتایج تجربی با استفاده از مدل لاجیت نشان می‌دهد که طی دوره زمانی مورد بررسی، فراوانی منابع نفتی دارای تأثیر مثبت و معنادار و شاخص‌های حکمرانی خوب دارای اثر منفی و معنادار بر درگیری مسلحانه داخلی بوده است. در ضمن، در حضور شاخص‌های حکمرانی خوب، اثر مثبت فراوانی منابع نفتی بر درگیری مسلحانه داخلی، کاهش می‌یابد. علاوه بر این، در بین مؤلفه‌های تشکیل‌دهنده شاخص حکمرانی خوب، مؤلفه شفافیت و ثبات سیاسی نسبت به سایر مؤلفه‌های آن، بیشترین اثرگذاری را در کاهش وقوع درگیری مسلحانه داخلی و همچنین کاهش اثرگذاری مثبت فراوانی منابع نفتی بر درگیری مسلحانه داخلی در کشورهای مورد مطالعه داشته است. بر اساس نتایج تجربی به‌دست‌آمده، مهم‌ترین توصیه سیاستی این مقاله، فراهم‌سازی بسترهای لازم در جهت الزامات تحقق حکمرانی خوب در کشورهای صادرکننده نفت به‌منظور کاهش وقوع درگیری‌‌های داخلی و نفرین سیاسی منابع می‌باشد.

کلیدواژه‌ها

موضوعات

عنوان مقاله [English]

The Impact of Good Governance Indicators on the Occurrence of Civil Armed Conflict: A Study of Oil Exporting Countries

نویسندگان [English]

  • Abolghasem Golkhandan 1
  • sahebeh mohamadian mansour 2
1 Phd in public sector economics
2 Assistants Professor, Department of Economic, Payame Noor University, Tehran, Iran
چکیده [English]

In this article, an attempt has been made to empirically examine the effect of institutional quality on the occurrence of civil armed conflicts in countries with oil revenues. For this purpose, the effect of good governance and its main components (as indicators of institutional quality measurement) along with the abundance of oil resources on the occurrence of civil armed conflict in 68 oil exporting countries during the period of 1995-2019 has been investigated. T Empirical results using the logit model show that during the period under review, the abundance of oil resources has a positive and significant effect and good governance indicators have a negative and significant effect on civil armed conflict. Meanwhile, in the presence of good governance indicators, the positive effect of abundance of oil resources on civil armed conflict is reduced. In addition, among the components that make up the good governance index, the transparency and political stability component compared to its other components has the greatest effect in reducing the occurrence of civil armed conflict, and as well as reducing the positive effect of the abundance of oil resources on civil armed conflict in the studied countries. Based on the experimental results obtained, the most important policy recommendation of this article is to provide the necessary platforms to fulfill the requirements of good governance in oil exporting countries in order to reduce the occurrence of civil conflicts and the political curse of natural resources.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Civil Armed Conflict
  • Abundance of Oil Resources
  • Good Governance
  • Oil Exporting Countries
  • Logit Model

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فصلنامه آفاق امنیت
دوره 16، شماره 61 - شماره پیاپی 4
زمستان 1402
بهمن 1402
صفحه 195-224

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سابقه مقاله

  • تاریخ دریافت: 07 تیر 1402
  • تاریخ بازنگری: 24 تیر 1402
  • تاریخ پذیرش: 10 بهمن 1402
  • تاریخ انتشار: 01 بهمن 1402

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