This study, with a data-driven approach and analysis and modeling of prioritized terrorist threats against the national security of the Islamic Republic of Iran, presents a quantitative picture of the landscape and patterns of domestic terrorist threats in Iran based on the Global Terrorism Database (GTD) using data related to terrorist incidents recorded in the 2012 version of this database for Iran during the period 1979-2011, combined with qualitative analysis to interpret patterns and relate them to theoretical foundations (such as hybrid threat and securitization).
With cluster analysis derived from the Girvan-Newman algorithm in the Gephi software to identify distinct operational patterns, a multi-indicator model for prioritizing threats based on six main indicators operationalized from the relevant data has been developed.
The results of the study showed 514 incidents with 2,183 martyred and 3,597 injuries during the period 1979-2011. The time trend shows a peak of activity in the 1980s and a relative increase and change like threats after 2001; Tehran, Sistan and Baluchestan, and Kurdistan provinces have been identified as the main foci, and the Mojahedin-e Khalq, Jaish al-Adl, and Democratic Party of Iran groups have had the most recorded attacks and have been responsible for approximately 35% of the unknown attacks. Bombings, explosions, and assassinations have been the dominant tactics, and military and law enforcement targets have been the main targets. In the cluster analysis, three main patterns were distinguished: East: ethno-sectarian; Capital: political-urban; West: ethno-military.