نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی
نویسندگان
1 دانشگاه خوارزمی تهران
2 استادیار دانشگاه جامع امام حسین
چکیده
کلیدواژهها
موضوعات
عنوان مقاله [English]
نویسندگان [English]
The Paris Agreement, as the most significant international convention in this field, obliges countries to formulate and implement emission reduction programs known as Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs). In this regard, the key question is whether this international regime should be viewed merely as a tool for constraining countries such as Iran, or as an opportunity for restructuring their economic and technological systems.
This study employs a qualitative thematic analysis approach to examine the Paris Agreement documents and three key Conferences of the Parties (COP21, COP26, and COP29) of the UNFCCC, in order to identify and analyze the related economic and security opportunities and threats for Iran. The textual data were coded and analyzed using MAXQDA software.
main findings are categorized as follows:
1.Economic threats: pressure on oil and petrochemical exports, decline in foreign exchange revenues, adaptation costs for energy-intensive industries, and limited access to international mechanisms.
2.Security threats: growing energy insecurity and reduced regional bargaining power.
Technological and financial opportunities: potential for attracting climate finance and technology transfer, conditional on removing banking and institutional barriers, as well as capacity for renewable energy development.
4.Regional diplomatic opportunities: utilizing regional projects and cooperation frameworks to mitigate the impacts of sanctions.
The overall conclusion indicates that, under current conditions, threats outweigh opportunities and, if left unaddressed, could increase Iran’s strategic vulnerability in both economic and security dimensions. Therefore, policy mechanisms should focus on strengthening domestic resilience—through infrastructure modernization and social support—and pursuing targeted climate diplomacy to secure access to international resources and technology.
کلیدواژهها [English]
)