A Meta-Analysis of the Iran–U.S. Security Dilemma: Explaining the Inherent Fragility on Any Potential Agreement

Articles in Press

Document Type : Original Article

Authors

1 Assistant Professor, Department of Political Science and International Relations, Faculty of Literature and Humanities, Lorestan University

2 M.A. in International Relations, Kharazmi University

Abstract

The failure of a previous agreement, the protracted diplomacy to restore it, and ultimately the breakdown of the 2025 negotiations following Israel’s attack on Iranian soil once again highlighted the deep and complex barriers to any reconciliation between Iran and the United States. This study examines the various dimensions of this failure and addresses the central question: *What are the key obstacles to a potential agreement between Iran and the second Trump administration, and how does the combination of these factors render any possible deal unstable and fragile?* The main hypothesis is that a mix of structural and psychological factors poses significant barriers to reaching an agreement. The findings indicate that three structural obstacles-entrenched distrust, strategic conflicts, and the nature of the international system-alongside three psychological barriers-Trump’s perceptions, his impulsive behavior, and domestic political pressures in both countries-have collectively undermined diplomacy. Additionally, the role of third-party actors, particularly Israel, has been decisive as a catalyst intensifying the breakdown of negotiations. The study concludes that the interplay between structural-realist pressures and psychological-perceptual impediments renders any potential agreement inherently fragile and short-lived. The research adopts a qualitative, descriptive-analytical approach.

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Security Horizons

Articles in Press, Accepted Manuscript
Available Online from 22 September 2025

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History

  • Receive Date: 26 June 2025
  • Revise Date: 07 August 2025
  • Accept Date: 26 August 2025
  • Publish Date: 22 September 2025

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