Document Type : Original Article
Authors
1
PhD in Political Science, Faculty of Law and Political Science, Ferdowsi University, Mashhad, Iran.
2
Graduated of Master's degree in International Relations, Ferdowsi University, Mashhad, Iran.
3
PhD student in International Relations, Islamic Azad University, Rafsanjan Branch, Rafsanjan, Iran.
Abstract
The aim of this study is to examine the key drivers influencing the Yemen crisis and to explore possible future scenarios based on current conditions. To achieve this, sixteen variables across four dimensions were identified and presented to experts on Yemen, who were asked to assess the mutual influence of each variable. Given the complexity and breadth of the identified variables, complexity theory was adopted as the theoretical framework to enhance analytical capacity. Among the available foresight techniques, scenario planning using the Scenario Wizard software was selected. The study's findings indicate that four plausible futures for Yemen can be derived from the interaction of the sixteen variables. The most critical driving variables identified include: the dysfunctional political structure, ethno-sectarian divisions, and the absence of a national government. One of the key findings of the study is that Iran and Saudi Arabia, as two influential actors in the Yemen crisis, play a facilitative role in conflict resolution and possess the potential to reduce tensions. However, this influence does not equate to resolving the crisis. Although the Iran–Saudi agreement has created a space for diplomatic dialogue, it has failed to address the structural causes of the crisis, such as the lack of a national government, foreign interventions, and economic collapse. In conclusion, the study argues that achieving sustainable peace in Yemen requires the establishment of inclusive political frameworks, a reduction in external interventions, and the disruption of internal cycles of violence.
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