Document Type : Original Article
Authors
1
MSc of Political Sciences, Dafoos, and Ph.D. Student, Higher National Defense University, Tehran, Iran
2
Associate Professor, Department of Crime Detection, Comprehensive University of Police Sciences, Tehran, Iran
3
Faculty of Management and Accounting, College of Farabi, University of Tehran, Qom, Iran.
Abstract
In recent years, non-performing loans (NPLs) have brought economic, social, and security crises in the Islamic Republic of Iran. This research provides an ABC strategic analysis of the NPLs’ consequences on Iran’s economic security. This research has a qualitative content analysis method and its data is triangulated from the supreme leadership, the forces of the government, and Iranian pundits for the period from 1961 to 2023. The findings show that at the first level, the NPLs by destroying the economic strategies of the government, deeply penetrate the economic pressure into the country's social system and lead to the destruction of social structures and values. With the loss of the social base of the government, the ground is prepared for the threat of the political system, and its final result is the destruction of the legitimacy of the government and the collapse of the country's national and international security. The results show that the most destructive consequences of the NPLs come from economic indiscipline and monetary mismanagement of the government, this level of consequences has secondary consequences on the social welfare and capital that are more difficult to control. The consequences of the third level, which themselves originate from the second level, impose the most extensive and uncontrollable consequences on the legitimacy of the country's sovereignty, national security, and international authority. Therefore, reforming and rationalizing the economic policies of the government is the most fundamental act to protect the country's economic security from the consequences of the NPLs.
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