Improving the agent-based modeling method of social unrest with a focus on government legitimacy

Articles in Press

Document Type : Original Article

Authors

1 Holy Prophet College and Research Center, IHU, Tehran, Iran

2 Holy Prophet College and Research Center, IHU, Tehran Iran

3 Holy prophet college and research center,IHU,Tehran,Iran

Abstract

The study of social unrest from various perspectives is a concern of the information society. The aim of these studies is to understand the reasons and factors that underlie their control and to achieve their predictive power. The Epstein model is the most accepted factor-based model for modeling social unrest, which has undergone numerous improvements since its introduction. In this article, we will first provide a comprehensive review of all the work that has improved this model. Then, the intended improvement to the model will be described and the output of the implemented model will be examined. The modeling results in this study show that the most important parameter in reducing the number of active protesters and prisoners is the government legitimacy parameter. Also, it was seen in the modeling that by improving the Epstein model and changing the legitimacy parameter from 0 to 1 and vice versa, the number of peaceful and non-protesters will reach the highest number. Therefore, by focusing on this parameter, the necessary macro-management can be applied in the face of the riot scene.

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Security Horizons

Articles in Press, Accepted Manuscript
Available Online from 09 June 2025

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History

  • Receive Date: 08 December 2024
  • Revise Date: 27 February 2025
  • Accept Date: 11 May 2025
  • Publish Date: 09 June 2025

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