Scenarios about the future of the Islamic Republic of Iran in the horizon of 1404

Document Type : Original Article

Author

Ph.D. in International Relations from Allameh Tabataba'i University, Assistant Professor of Political Science, Department of Domain and University Research

Abstract

The Islamic Republic of Iran is a perfect example of a "dignified" state in the international system that has sought to promote its regional and international status by defining different desirable positions and various strategies during the years following the revolution. The publication of the document "The Perspective of the Islamic Republic of Iran on the Horizon 1404" is an undeniable evidence of the Islamic Republic's dignity. In this document, Iran is described as a "developed country with the first economic, scientific and technological status at the regional level with an Islamic and revolutionary identity, inspiring in the Islamic world and with a constructive and effective engagement in the international system". Accordingly, the present article looks forward to answering two questions: First, what are the most powerful scenarios for the dignified future of the Islamic Republic of Iran? Second, what implications do these scenarios have on the dignity policies of the Islamic Republic? In response to the first question, six scenarios were extracted using foresight, cross-impact analysis and two advanced software, Mac and Scenario Wizards. The sharing of six scenarios on the seventeen global and regional influential factors leads to the answer to the second question and indicates that the Islamic Republic's dignified goals in the 1404 horizon will face severe difficulties and constraints.

Keywords

References

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http://www.imf.org
http://www.info.worldbank.org
https://www.atlanticcouncil.org
https://www.defense.gov
https://www.economist.com
https://www.foreignaffairs.com
https://www.zirius.eu

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History

  • Receive Date: 09 May 2018
  • Revise Date: 13 January 2019
  • Accept Date: 19 September 2018

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